With Ensemble and the NFP Scoring an Unexpected Victory Against Marine Le Pen’s RN, Leftism May Not Be So Dead After All
Article Written by Jett James Pruitt
During the first week of July, international pundits were all but certain France was going to swing to the far-right.
In the first round of the country’s legislative elections on June 30, Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally (Reassemblement National) captured more than 33 percent of the popular vote, leading many to believe the party would reach the threshold for an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
The left-wing New Popular Front alliance (Nouveau Front Populaire), spearheaded by firebrand politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon, placed second with 28 percent. Finally, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition trailed in a distant third-place with a mere 20 percent support.
Following these results, most pollsters were not truly debating whether the RN would win the most seats in the National Assembly, but whether they would secure 289 of the 577-seat lower house of parliament to form a majority government.
For this reason, Europe was left in shock when the NFP surged to first-place in the second-round election on July 7, thereby winning the most seats in the National Assembly.
Ensemble made an electoral comeback by placing second, whereas the RN slumped to third. While the party won the popular vote and increased their share of seats from 89 to 143, this result is widely perceived to be a crushing defeat for Marine Le Pen and the RN.
To further complicate matters, the electoral resurgence of Ensemble and the NFP has thrown the country into political deadlock, as no single party or coalition has enough seats to form a majority government. The NFP won 182 seats and Ensemble held on to 159 seats, both far below the threshold for an absolute majority.
Speaking to a jubilant crowd of supporters, Mélenchon expressed his elation that the far-right was kept at bay: “We are so immensely relieved. You see, one way or another, tonight we are now allowed to do something that we doubted we could do: we are allowed to love our country.” Mélenchon went on to thank the French people for their “obstinate patience” and propelling the NFP to victory.
Gabriel Attal, the current Prime Minister of France and a leading figure of Macron’s coalition, expressed a bitter-sweet tone as he announced his intention to resign in the aftermath of Ensemble’s second-place finish: “Tonight, the [political] extremes have no absolute majority, thanks to our determination and the strength of our values. We [centrists] have three times more MPs than were predicted at the start of this campaign. Being Prime Minister was the honor of my life. This evening the political group that I represent no longer has a majority and tomorrow morning I will submit my resignation to the President.”
The following day, Macron refused to accept Attal’s resignation, making it clear he wants him to temporarily remain as head of government to ensure political stability amid a hung parliament and the upcoming Paris Summer Olympics. While Attal continues to serve as Prime Minister, it appears he will ultimately be replaced within the next few months.
How did the NFP, and to a lesser extent Ensemble, stage an upset victory against the National Rally? Simply put, the July 7 election illustrates the indelible power of the anti-vote.
In the prelude to the second round of voting, leaders of Ensemble, the NFP, and The Republicans (the fourth-largest political party in France) forged a cordon sanitaire against the RN to prevent them from reaching a plurality of seats in the National Assembly.
Almost immediately after the first-round, Mélenchon announced the NFP would withdraw from any race in which they were in third-place and unconditionally throw their support behind the local Ensemble candidate. He emphatically asserted the NFP would not give “a single vote for the National Rally.” Likewise, Attal encouraged party supporters to engage in tactical voting if they lived in constituencies where Ensemble was behind. Even President Macron called upon voters to support candidates that are “Clearly Republican and Democratic,” or basically anyone not associated with the RN.
For context, in order to qualify for the runoff election, a candidate within one of France’s 577 constituencies has to receive at least 12.5 percent of the vote in the first-round. Then, the candidate who receives a plurality of votes in the second-round wins the election. In most election years, only two candidates qualify for the second-round, with three-candidate runoffs (i.e., triangulaires) being rare in French politics.
After June 30, however, there were a total of 306 three-way races, as well as an unprecedented 5 four-way runoffs.
Opponents of the National Rally were determined to change this. By the candidate withdrawal deadline of July 2, a staggering 132 NFP candidates stood down in favor of Ensemble candidates, whereas 83 Ensemble contenders exited in favor for the NFP. That means there were only 91 actual triangulaires between various parties.
As a result, support for the RN was diluted by the other two coalition’s cordon sanitaire, thereby diminishing the RN's presence in the National Assembly even though they won the outright popular vote.
Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old President of the RN who is considered to be a protégé of Marine Le Pen, blamed his party’s disappointing performance on a ‘dishonorable alliance’ created by Ensemble and the NFP: “People have taken all means to stop French people from choosing different politics. But, today, the RN has had the best result it has ever had. Unfortunately, an alliance of dishonor and electoral arrangement passed by Emmanuel Macron and Gabriel Attal have led to certain policies. We were ahead in European elections and last week in the first round. Tonight, these electoral arrangements have thrown France into Jean Luc-Mélenchon’s extreme left.”
Under this framework, it appears that July 7 was not necessarily a pro-NFP or pro-Ensemble election, but rather an anti-National Rally election.
The French Left and the French Center successfully foiled the electoral success of the Right by calling upon supporters to engage in strategic voting throughout many of the country’s 577 constituencies. In effect, the French Left was able to beat expectations by leaning into the power of the “anti-vote.”
France is a dual-executive republic in which a directly-elected President serves as head of state and commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, whereas a Prime Minister serves as head of government.
Because no single party or coalition won an absolute majority in the National Assembly, Macron must decide how to proceed with a tri-partisan gridlock. His options include instituting a non-political, technocratic government of experts to handle the day-to-day affairs of policymaking, allowing the NFP to form a minority government, or encouraging Ensemble to form a broad alliance of the Left and Center to form a coalition government.
Regardless, France has an uncertain road ahead, as Macron cannot announce another legislative election for at least one year.
With respect to the United States, conservative commentators must learn from their French counterparts. Specifically, they must understand that Joe Biden’s poor debate performance against Donald Trump on June 27, and the subsequent internal fighting within the Democratic Party as whether to replace him as the nominee, will not guarantee electoral success in the upcoming Presidential and Congressional Elections.
As the world has observed in France, left-wing political parties are so staunch and unrelenting in their opposition to perceived threats of democracy that they will endorse, support, and patronize any candidate they believe has the best chance to win.
The Democrat Party is already coalescing its support around the current President, which is reflected by the fact that Biden still remains a viable contender against Trump.
An Emerson College poll conducted between July 7 and July 8 finds that Trump leads Biden 46 to 43 percent. A 3-percent lead is a decent margin, but not a walk in the park. Moreover, while Trump is currently ahead of Biden in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, most national polls have remained surprisingly stable after the June 27 debate.
If the U.S. Presidential Election were held this month, Trump would most likely win by all objective accounts. However, Republicans cannot ignore the power of the “anti-vote” and must be prepared to face a more challenging uphill battle than they currently anticipate.
Just like Ensemble and the NFP in France, the Democrat Party may surpass expectations and capture key swing states that conservative commentators would not have expected to go for Biden.
Overall, it is arguably time for pollsters to take a closer look at the power of the “anti-vote” when forecasting the outcome of future elections.
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Jett James Pruitt is a Native American, Pulitzer Prize-nominated author of the bestselling book THROUGH THE EYES OF A YOUNG AMERICAN. He is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheGenZPost.com, and a political strategist specializing in Generation Z voter trends. His next book, THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE: What America's Political Parties Must Do To Win Over Generation Z, is due in major bookstores worldwide later this year.
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